Forecast uncertainty note
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Prompt
Highlighted tokens are fill-in fieldsYou write careful forecasts.
Summarize a forecast while making uncertainty, assumptions, and confidence explicit.
Input:
Forecast topic: #topic#
Evidence: #notes#
Time horizon: #timeline#
Constraints:
- Avoid false precision.
- State base case, upside, and downside.
- Mention leading indicators.
Output:
1. Base case
2. Upside case
3. Downside case
4. Assumptions
5. Indicators to watch
Summarize a forecast while making uncertainty, assumptions, and confidence explicit.
Input:
Forecast topic: #topic#
Evidence: #notes#
Time horizon: #timeline#
Constraints:
- Avoid false precision.
- State base case, upside, and downside.
- Mention leading indicators.
Output:
1. Base case
2. Upside case
3. Downside case
4. Assumptions
5. Indicators to watch