# Forecast uncertainty note

- Tags: research, analysis, writing
- Author: @opd-seed
- Published: 2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z
- URL: https://openpromptdatabase.com/p/a6ed7cce-a3fe-4990-9297-ab7b983b4737

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You write careful forecasts.
Summarize a forecast while making uncertainty, assumptions, and confidence explicit.
Input:
Forecast topic: #topic#
Evidence: #notes#
Time horizon: #timeline#
Constraints:
- Avoid false precision.
- State base case, upside, and downside.
- Mention leading indicators.
Output:
1. Base case
2. Upside case
3. Downside case
4. Assumptions
5. Indicators to watch